S&P 500 · 154 Years of Returns

Monthly Seasonality & Historical Era Analysis · 1871–2025
Primary Source: Robert Shiller, Yale University · Irrational Exuberance Dataset · 1,859 Monthly Returns Computed
Monthly Returns
1,859
Avg Monthly
+0.48%
% Positive
57.4%
Best Month
+50.3%
Worst Month
−26.5%
Annualized
+5.7%

Monthly Seasonality · 154-Year Average

MonthAvg %MedianStd Dev% PositiveBestWorstN
Jan 🏆 +1.49% +1.51% 2.85% 66.2% +9.2% (1976) -6.8% (2008) 154
Feb +0.39% +0.38% 3.47% 52.9% +11.3% (1991) -11.8% (1933) 155
Mar +0.13% +0.25% 3.44% 54.2% +7.0% (1920) -19.1% (2020) 155
Apr +0.65% +0.83% 4.03% 60.0% +12.0% (2009) -24.0% (1932) 155
May +0.17% +0.21% 4.66% 52.9% +28.7% (1933) -13.8% (1940) 155
Jun +0.14% +0.42% 3.76% 55.5% +17.1% (1933) -13.4% (1932) 155
Jul +0.91% +0.83% 3.71% 60.6% +19.9% (1938) -11.7% (1974) 155
Aug +0.88% +0.75% 5.30% 61.3% +50.3% (1932) -10.6% (2011) 155
Sep +0.23% +0.68% 4.09% 58.1% +11.6% (1982) -14.9% (1931) 155
Oct ⚠️ -0.33% +0.03% 4.50% 50.3% +11.1% (1938) -20.4% (2008) 155
Nov +0.67% +1.31% 4.41% 59.4% +10.8% (1998) -26.5% (1929) 155
Dec +0.39% +0.73% 3.41% 57.4% +9.4% (1873) -18.8% (1931) 155
"Sell in May" has a 154-year evidence base — but it's weaker than most investors think.
Nov–Apr (Winter)
+0.62%/mo
May–Oct (Summer)
+0.33%/mo
Feb–Jul (Your Window)
+0.40%/mo

Historical Eras · 1871–2025

Reconstruction
Gilded Age
Progressive Era
World War I
Roaring Twenties
Great Depression
World War II
Post-War Boom
Go-Go Sixties
Stagflation
Reagan Bull
Telecom & Internet
Dot-Com Bubble
Lost Decade
QE & Recovery
Trump & COVID
AI & Inflation
Reconstruction
1871–1877 · 7 years
Post-Civil War rebuilding. Transcontinental Railroad completed 1869. Panic of 1873 — longest depression in US history (65 months).
Avg / Month
-0.33%
Annualized
-3.9%
Total Return
-26%
% Positive
41%
Months
83
Years
7
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Gilded Age
1878–1896 · 19 years
Rockefeller, Carnegie, Morgan. Railroad mania. Second Industrial Revolution. Massive wealth concentration. Panic of 1893.
Avg / Month
+0.16%
Annualized
+1.9%
Total Return
+29%
% Positive
46%
Months
228
Years
19
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Progressive Era
1897–1913 · 17 years
Trust-busting (Standard Oil breakup). Federal Reserve Act 1913. US becomes world's largest industrial economy. Panic of 1907.
Avg / Month
+0.38%
Annualized
+4.5%
Total Return
+90%
% Positive
55%
Months
204
Years
17
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
World War I
1914–1918 · 5 years
NYSE closed Jul–Dec 1914 (longest closure ever). War economy. Liberty Bonds. Spanish Flu 1918 killed 675,000 Americans.
Avg / Month
+0.02%
Annualized
+0.2%
Total Return
-5%
% Positive
47%
Months
60
Years
5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Roaring Twenties
1919–1929 · 11 years
Radio, automobiles, electrification. Consumer credit explosion. Speculative mania. Market rose 500% from 1921 low to Sept 1929 peak.
Avg / Month
+0.86%
Annualized
+10.3%
Total Return
+172%
% Positive
67%
Months
132
Years
11
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Great Depression
1930–1939 · 10 years
89% peak-to-trough decline. 25% unemployment. New Deal. Glass-Steagall Act. SEC created 1934. Market didn't fully recover until 1954.
Avg / Month
-0.09%
Annualized
-1.1%
Total Return
-43%
% Positive
51%
Months
120
Years
10
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
World War II
1940–1945 · 6 years
War economy. Rationing. Bretton Woods system 1944. Market bottomed April 1942, rallied 158% into V-J Day.
Avg / Month
+0.54%
Annualized
+6.5%
Total Return
+40%
% Positive
62%
Months
72
Years
6
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Post-War Boom
1946–1959 · 14 years
Baby boom. Suburbanization. Interstate Highway System. Korean War. Television revolution. Rise of the consumer economy.
Avg / Month
+0.79%
Annualized
+9.4%
Total Return
+227%
% Positive
62%
Months
168
Years
14
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Go-Go Sixties
1960–1968 · 9 years
Conglomerate era. Space race. Vietnam escalation. Great Society programs. Market doubled. Kennedy assassination.
Avg / Month
+0.59%
Annualized
+7.1%
Total Return
+83%
% Positive
61%
Months
108
Years
9
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Stagflation
1969–1982 · 14 years
Nixon shock — end of gold standard. OPEC oil embargoes '73 and '79. Watergate. Volcker's 20% interest rates. S&P flat for 14 years.
Avg / Month
+0.24%
Annualized
+2.8%
Total Return
+36%
% Positive
54%
Months
168
Years
14
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Reagan Bull
1983–1989 · 7 years
Deregulation. Leveraged buyout boom. Black Monday 1987 (–22.6% in one day). Junk bonds. S&P tripled from '82 low.
Avg / Month
+1.16%
Annualized
+13.9%
Total Return
+141%
% Positive
67%
Months
84
Years
7
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Telecom & Internet
1990–1994 · 5 years
Gulf War recession. S&L crisis aftermath. NAFTA. World Wide Web goes public 1991. Netscape founded 1994.
Avg / Month
+0.48%
Annualized
+5.8%
Total Return
+33%
% Positive
55%
Months
60
Years
5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Dot-Com Bubble
1995–2000 · 6 years
Internet mania. 'Irrational exuberance.' NASDAQ hits 5000. S&P tripled. Y2K fears. AOL–Time Warner merger.
Avg / Month
+1.55%
Annualized
+18.6%
Total Return
+186%
% Positive
68%
Months
72
Years
6
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Lost Decade
2001–2009 · 9 years
September 11. Enron/WorldCom. Iraq War. Housing bubble. Lehman Brothers collapse. S&P fell 57% in 2008–09.
Avg / Month
-0.07%
Annualized
-0.8%
Total Return
-16%
% Positive
58%
Months
108
Years
9
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
QE & Recovery
2010–2015 · 6 years
Zero interest rates. Three rounds of quantitative easing. European debt crisis. Taper tantrum 2013. Slow, steady recovery.
Avg / Month
+0.90%
Annualized
+10.8%
Total Return
+82%
% Positive
67%
Months
72
Years
6
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Trump & COVID
2016–2020 · 5 years
Tax cuts. Trade wars with China. COVID crash (–34% in 23 days — fastest 30% decline ever). Record fiscal stimulus.
Avg / Month
+1.06%
Annualized
+12.7%
Total Return
+92%
% Positive
70%
Months
60
Years
5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
AI & Inflation
2021–2025 · 5 years
Post-COVID inflation peaks at 9.1%. Fed hikes to 5.5%. ChatGPT launches Nov 2022. Magnificent 7. AI capex exceeds $650B.
Avg / Month
+1.09%
Annualized
+13.1%
Total Return
+80%
% Positive
70%
Months
60
Years
5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

Year × Month Heatmap · Every Return Since 1871

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal
1871Reconstruction —+1.4+2.4+2.8+2.5-0.8-1.9+1.3+1.0-5.2+1.1+2.2 +6.8%
1872 +2.5+0.4+3.3+2.8+0.0-1.0-0.6-1.2-1.8+0.4-0.4+2.4 +6.9%
1873 +0.8+0.8-0.8-1.4+0.2-1.4-0.2+0.0-7.6-8.7-3.6+9.4 -12.5%
1874 +5.4+3.0-1.5-2.7-2.6-0.4+0.0+0.2+1.6-0.2+0.9-0.7 +3.0%
1875 +0.0-0.2+1.3+1.3-3.9-2.0+0.2+0.5-0.9-1.6+1.6+0.0 -3.7%
1876 +2.1+1.3-0.2-3.8-3.7-0.7-1.2-4.1-6.1-0.5-1.9-0.6 -19.5%
1877 -0.8-5.9-5.1-7.3+0.0-7.1+4.4+7.0+6.2+2.2-1.5-0.3 -8.3%
1878Gilded Age +0.0-2.2+1.9+2.8+0.3+2.1+2.1-0.9+2.0-1.1-0.3-0.6 +6.1%
1879 +3.8+3.6-1.6+3.3+4.5+0.5+2.0+0.7+3.7+10.9+5.3-0.2 +36.6%
1880 +3.9+1.8+1.9-2.3-7.9+0.4+4.6+3.6-0.2+2.9+5.3+4.1 +18.0%
1881 +6.0-0.3+1.1-0.3+4.5+1.2-3.5-2.4+0.8-1.6+0.7-2.9 +3.3%
1882 -1.5-2.2-0.2+0.0-1.2-0.5+5.6+3.0+1.0-2.7-4.3+0.5 -2.5%
1883 -0.5-2.2+1.2+2.1-1.7+0.9-1.5-4.5+1.1-2.7+1.5-2.2 -8.7%
1884 -3.0+2.7-0.4-4.5-8.1-4.1+0.0+6.3-3.2-3.3-2.0-0.2 -19.8%
1885 -2.3+3.1+0.2-0.2-1.1-0.5+3.7+5.6-1.3+5.8+6.5-0.8 +18.8%
1886 +0.0+1.9-2.1-1.3-2.0+4.6+1.5+0.8+2.6+2.5+2.5-2.6 +8.4%
1887 -1.1-0.7+2.3+2.3+1.7-2.9-2.4-2.5-1.3-3.3+1.9-0.6 -6.5%
1888 +0.8-0.6-3.8+0.4+1.4-3.1+2.6+2.1+2.5-0.6-2.1-1.9 -2.2%
1889 +1.9+1.1-2.1-0.2+2.7+1.7-2.0+1.3+2.4-1.8-0.9-0.6 +3.6%
1890 +1.1-1.1-0.8+2.1+4.3-0.7-0.7-2.3-1.7-4.5-7.3-2.3 -14.0%
1891 +5.2+1.2-1.8+3.3-0.4-2.0-1.6+3.4+8.1+0.0-1.5+3.0 +16.9%
1892 +1.8+0.2+1.1-0.2+0.0-0.5+0.0+1.4-2.5+2.0-0.4-1.1 +1.9%
1893 +1.8-1.8-3.6+0.0-8.9-4.8-9.3-2.4+7.1+3.0+1.6-3.5 -20.8%
1894 -2.0+1.4+3.0+1.3-3.7-1.4-2.1+3.8+1.6-3.1+0.0-0.9 -2.2%
1895 -1.2-1.4+0.0+4.3+5.5+2.0+0.4+1.5+0.6-1.5-3.4-5.9 +1.0%
1896 -1.2+4.2-1.6+0.9-0.5-1.8-6.5-5.7+5.2+2.2+6.8-3.7 -1.4%
1897Progressive Era +0.0-0.9+0.2-3.1+0.5+4.7+4.4+6.5+4.8-3.2-3.5+2.2 +12.5%
1898 +2.7-0.2-4.5-1.7+6.6+3.9+0.4+3.7-0.2-2.1+3.3+6.2 +18.1%
1899 +7.6+3.8+1.4+1.3-4.2-2.3+3.5+2.5-1.1-0.5+1.9-6.8 +7.2%
1900 +1.3+1.8+0.8+1.3-4.7-3.0+0.0+1.4-2.4+3.6+7.8+6.0 +14.0%
1901 +2.9+2.5+3.6+8.4-5.0+10.0-6.7+1.4-0.5-1.1+2.1-1.6 +16.0%
1902 +2.1+0.9+0.1+3.4-0.2-0.6+2.3+2.7+0.2-3.2-3.9-2.3 +1.6%
1903 +5.1-0.6-3.9-4.1-1.9-5.5-4.6-3.2-2.4-3.2+0.3+4.6 -19.5%
1904 +1.7-2.7-0.3+2.5-2.1+0.2+4.1+3.4+4.4+5.9+5.4+1.0 +23.4%
1905 +2.2+4.4+2.8-1.2-4.9+1.2+3.1+3.7+0.3+1.4-0.5+2.5 +15.0%
1906 +3.5-0.7-2.4-1.4-2.7+1.3-2.6+7.4+3.1-3.0+2.1-0.9 +3.7%
1907 -2.8-3.1-9.8+0.5-3.5-3.2+3.8-7.5-1.1-10.9-5.9+5.1 -38.4%
1908 +4.3-3.6+4.1+5.4+5.4+0.1+3.7+4.3-1.1+1.2+6.8+2.3 +32.7%
1909 +0.3-2.9+1.4+4.5+3.3+1.8+1.4+2.4+0.1+0.4-0.5+1.2 +13.4%
1910 -2.1-3.6+2.5-2.4-1.6-4.8-5.1+2.4+0.7+4.6-0.1-2.8 -12.4%
1911 +2.4+1.7-1.2-0.4+2.2+2.0-0.4-4.8-5.5+0.6+4.0+0.4 +1.1%
1912 +0.1-0.9+2.9+3.1-0.1+0.0+0.1+2.3+0.5-0.2-1.1-3.6 +3.1%
1913 -0.9-3.5-1.9-0.1-2.7-5.0+1.4+2.7+0.9-3.2-2.5-0.1 -15.0%
1914World War I +4.1+1.3-1.9-2.4+0.6-0.5-5.5+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-4.3 -8.6%
1915 +1.8-1.3+2.6+7.5-2.3+1.1-0.4+4.2+3.7+5.5+3.5+0.2 +26.2%
1916 -1.6-1.4-0.3-1.1+2.2+1.0-1.4+0.8+4.1+3.1+2.3-4.0 +3.6%
1917 -2.3-5.6+3.1-1.5-3.4+2.0-2.8-3.0-4.8-5.4-8.3-3.4 -35.4%
1918 +6.0+3.1-2.0-1.0+3.2+0.1+0.8+0.9-0.5+4.2+2.5-2.0 +15.4%
1919Roaring Twenties -0.6+0.4+3.0+3.3+6.9+2.7+3.3-6.7+1.6+5.1-3.0-2.9 +13.0%
1920 -1.0-8.3+7.0-0.8-6.3-1.7-0.1-3.9+3.6+0.1-5.1-9.0 -25.5%
1921 +4.4-0.7-2.5+0.4+3.0-8.0-0.3-1.2+2.5+1.4+5.4+3.5 +7.8%
1922 -0.1+2.2+3.8+6.1+3.9-0.9+0.7+3.8+2.6+2.2-5.0-0.2 +18.9%
1923 +1.4+4.3+1.6-3.5-4.7-3.8-3.4+0.5+0.6-1.5+3.0+3.4 -2.1%
1924 +3.3+0.5-1.9-2.3-0.4+1.9+4.6+3.4-1.0-1.3+5.6+5.4 +17.8%
1925 +4.1+0.9-2.6-1.1+3.2+1.8+2.8+1.4+2.3+3.3+3.1+1.6 +20.8%
1926 +1.5+0.2-6.8-2.8+0.7+4.8+4.2+4.0+1.5-2.3+1.3+2.3 +8.6%
1927 -0.7+1.9+1.5+2.5+3.4+1.3+2.2+5.3+5.7-1.5+2.3+2.3 +26.3%
1928 +0.4-1.2+5.4+6.3+3.1-4.9+0.7+3.2+7.0+2.0+6.8+0.4 +29.2%
1929 +7.4+0.5+1.8-0.6+1.5+1.9+8.9+5.7+4.0-10.6-26.5+4.0 -2.0%
1930Great Depression +1.4+6.3+3.8+6.3-6.0-10.1-2.1-1.3-0.0-13.8-7.3-6.7 -29.4%
1931 +3.0+7.6+1.9-9.5-9.6-3.2+3.3-3.0-14.9-13.4+1.4-18.8 -55.1%
1932 -1.7-0.8+0.4-24.0-12.3-13.4+5.0+50.3+9.7-13.8-1.0-3.3 -4.8%
1933 +4.0-11.8-0.3+10.6+28.7+17.1+8.1-5.0-0.8-9.7+2.4+1.9 +45.1%
1934 +5.7+7.4-5.1+1.7-10.2+1.3-4.7-3.9-2.4+0.8+2.8+0.7 -6.0%
1935 +0.0-3.0-6.3+7.5+7.9+3.8+5.2+6.8+2.1+2.7+9.4+0.0 +35.9%
1936 +5.5+5.7+2.1+0.1-5.3+4.3+5.9+2.0+1.1+5.2+2.8-1.7 +27.8%
1937 +3.1+3.0-0.1-6.0-4.5-3.8+5.9+1.0-14.2-14.5-8.8-1.6 -40.4%
1938 +2.6-2.4-6.6-4.1+0.9+2.3+19.9+0.6-4.5+11.1+0.1-2.9 +17.0%
1939 -1.5-0.8-0.1-12.6+3.7+1.8+2.4-1.5+10.7+1.0-1.8-2.4 -1.0%
1940World War II -0.6-0.7-0.6+1.0-13.8-8.6+3.3+2.1+4.2+0.9+2.3-4.1 -14.4%
1941 +0.2-6.3+0.6-3.1-2.2+3.5+5.1-0.5+0.3-4.0-4.7-6.5 -17.5%
1942 +1.9-3.1-5.4-4.2+1.1+5.0+3.7-0.6+1.0+7.4+1.6+0.5 +9.1%
1943 +6.0+5.9+3.6+3.3+3.9+1.8+2.1-4.9+2.1-0.9-4.6+1.3 +19.6%
1944 +3.2-0.7+2.8-1.7+1.8+4.7+2.6-1.5-1.6+2.5-0.7+2.2 +13.5%
1945 +3.0+3.3-0.1+2.5+3.8+1.8-2.1+0.3+6.8+4.2+3.3+1.7 +28.6%
1946Post-War Boom +4.0+0.3-3.0+6.4+0.2-0.6-2.9-1.9-14.7-2.3-0.4+3.0 -11.9%
1947 +0.5+3.9-4.1-3.7-1.8+3.5+6.3-2.0-2.6+2.6-1.2-1.6 -0.1%
1948 -1.3-4.9+1.4+7.7+4.9+4.1-2.4-2.9-1.1+2.7-5.6-0.7 +2.0%
1949 +1.1-3.8+0.9-0.1-0.7-5.5+5.7+3.6+1.3+2.6+1.4+2.7 +9.1%
1950 +2.1+2.0+0.8+2.8+3.4+1.6-7.3+6.0+3.5+4.1-0.2-0.4 +18.5%
1951 +7.4+3.7-1.7+1.3+0.0-1.7+1.8+4.4+2.6-0.5-2.8+3.1 +17.6%
1952 +3.3-1.8+0.3-0.3-0.0+2.7+2.9+0.4-1.6-2.1+3.2+4.0 +11.0%
1953 +0.5-1.2+0.5-4.9+0.5-3.6+1.4+0.4-4.6+3.0+2.2+1.3 -4.4%
1954 +2.5+2.2+2.1+4.0+4.0+0.8+4.0+2.0+2.3+2.3+3.9+4.6 +34.8%
1955 +1.8+3.3-0.8+3.5-0.4+5.8+7.3-0.6+4.5-5.0+6.7+0.9 +27.0%
1956 -2.7+0.6+6.9+1.2-3.1-0.6+5.4-0.6-3.4-1.3-1.0+1.5 +2.9%
1957 -2.2-4.3+1.3+2.3+3.8+1.6+2.0-5.5-4.1-6.2-2.2-0.0 -13.4%
1958 +2.0+0.3+2.1+0.5+3.2+2.4+2.7+3.7+2.6+4.1+3.0+1.9 +28.6%
1959 +4.0-1.5+2.5+1.7+1.5-0.9+4.0-0.6-4.0-0.1+0.4+3.2 +10.3%
1960Go-Go Sixties -1.7-3.9-1.4+1.3-0.9+3.7-2.5+1.2-3.0-2.0+3.2+2.4 -3.5%
1961 +5.1+4.1+3.1+2.7+1.0-1.3-0.3+3.6-0.8+1.1+4.5+0.9 +23.8%
1962 -3.7+1.7+0.1-3.2-7.4-11.7+2.4+2.7-0.9-3.2+6.9+4.3 -12.0%
1963 +3.9+1.3-0.4+4.7+2.0-0.0-1.5+2.8+2.6+0.2-0.6+2.1 +17.2%
1964 +3.1+1.2+1.8+1.4+1.0-0.6+3.7-1.5+1.7+1.7+0.7-1.7 +12.6%
1965 +2.6+0.7+0.1+1.3+1.5-4.7-0.2+1.9+3.3+2.2+0.8-0.5 +9.1%
1966 +1.7-0.7-4.1+3.1-5.3-0.8-0.3-6.0-3.5-0.9+5.0+0.4 -11.4%
1967 +3.8+3.4+2.4+1.7+1.8-1.3+1.7+1.6+1.4-0.2-3.1+2.8 +16.2%
1968 -0.3-4.5-1.8+7.4+2.3+2.7-0.2-2.2+3.3+2.5+1.5+1.0 +11.7%
1969Stagflation -4.2-0.5-2.2+2.0+3.3-5.2-4.5-0.6+0.4+1.1+0.7-5.3 -15.0%
1970 -0.9-3.5+1.7-3.0-11.5-0.6+0.2+2.9+6.0+2.2-0.1+6.8 +0.1%
1971 +3.8+3.9+2.6+3.4-1.4-1.9-0.7-1.8+2.2-2.1-4.6+6.9 +10.3%
1972 +4.2+1.8+2.4+1.0-1.0+0.3-0.7+3.5-1.4+0.2+5.0+2.1 +17.3%
1973 +0.8-3.5-1.6-1.9-2.8-2.2+1.0-1.9+1.7+4.0-7.1-7.1 -20.7%
1974 +1.4-2.8+4.3-5.1-3.0+0.1-11.7-4.1-10.4+1.9+3.3-6.5 -32.6%
1975 +8.2+10.4+4.6+1.1+6.4+2.6+0.1-7.3-1.2+4.6+1.7-1.5 +29.5%
1976 +9.2+3.9+0.5+0.8-0.7+0.6+2.4-0.9+2.1-3.4-0.7+3.5 +17.2%
1977 -0.9-2.7-0.4-1.5-0.3+0.5+0.9-2.4-1.6-2.6+0.6-0.5 -10.8%
1978 -3.8-1.4-0.2+4.4+5.1+0.3-0.5+6.9+0.0-3.2-5.9+1.5 +3.2%
1979 +3.7-1.5+1.9+2.0-2.3+2.0+1.0+4.6+1.1-3.8-0.8+4.0 +11.9%
1980 +2.9+4.0-9.2-1.6+4.6+6.4+4.5+3.1+2.4+2.9+4.2-1.6 +22.6%
1981 -0.4-3.5+3.7+0.9-2.0+0.5-2.4+0.4-8.7+1.3+2.6+0.7 -6.9%
1982 -5.3-2.4-3.2+5.0+0.1-5.8-0.3+0.3+11.6+8.4+4.1+0.9 +13.4%
1983Reagan Bull +3.5+1.7+3.5+3.8+4.1+1.4+0.4-2.8+3.0+0.3-1.5-0.5 +16.9%
1984 +1.2-5.5+0.1+0.1-0.6-2.2-1.3+8.8+1.0-0.8+0.9-1.1 +0.6%
1985 +4.3+5.4-0.8+0.7+2.4+2.2+1.9-2.2-2.2+1.1+6.1+5.0 +23.8%
1986 +0.4+5.4+5.9+2.5+0.2+2.9-2.1+2.0-2.7-0.4+3.2+1.4 +18.7%
1987 +6.4+6.2+4.1-1.1-0.1+4.3+2.9+6.2-3.2-12.1-12.6-1.6 -0.6%
1988 +3.9+3.0+2.9-1.2-2.5+5.7-0.6-2.0+1.6+3.5-2.3+2.0 +14.2%
1989 +3.2+3.0-0.4+3.3+3.8+3.1+2.5+4.4+0.2+0.0-2.1+2.5 +23.6%
1990Telecom & Internet -2.5-2.8+2.4-0.1+3.6+2.9-0.1-8.1-4.6-2.6+2.7+4.3 -5.0%
1991 -1.0+11.3+2.8+2.0-0.4+0.1+0.5+2.4-0.6-0.1-0.2+0.7 +17.4%
1992 +7.1-0.8-1.3+0.0+1.8-1.6+1.7+0.7+0.1-1.4+2.5+3.0 +11.8%
1993 -0.1+1.5+1.9-1.6+0.5+0.6-0.2+1.5+1.1+1.0-0.2+0.7 +6.8%
1994 +1.5-0.3-1.6-3.6+0.8+0.9-0.8+2.8+0.6-0.7-0.6-1.3 -2.2%
1995Dot-Com Bubble +2.2+3.6+2.3+3.0+3.1+3.0+3.3+0.3+3.5+0.7+2.2+3.2 +30.5%
1996 -0.0+5.7-0.4+0.0+2.2+1.1-3.7+2.9+1.8+3.9+4.9+1.0 +19.5%
1997 +3.1+4.2-0.8-3.6+9.1+5.2+5.6+0.2+1.1+1.5-1.3+2.5 +26.8%
1998 +0.1+6.3+5.2+3.3-0.3-0.0+4.3-7.1-5.0+1.2+10.8+4.0 +22.7%
1999 +4.9-0.2+2.8+4.1-0.2-0.7+4.4-3.9-0.7-1.4+7.0+2.7 +19.0%
2000 -0.2-2.6+3.8+1.3-2.9+3.1+0.8+0.8-1.2-5.3-0.9-3.4 -6.7%
2001Lost Decade +0.4-2.2-9.2+0.3+6.8-2.5-2.8-2.2-11.4+3.1+4.9+1.3 -13.4%
2002 -0.4-3.5+4.8-3.6-2.9-6.0-10.9+1.0-4.9-1.5+6.5-1.2 -22.7%
2003 -0.4-6.6+1.1+5.1+5.2+5.6+0.5-0.3+3.0+1.9+1.1+2.9 +19.1%
2004 +4.8+1.0-1.7+0.8-2.7+2.7-2.4-1.5+2.6-0.0+4.6+2.6 +10.8%
2005 -1.5+1.5-0.4-2.6+1.2+2.0+1.7+0.2+0.1-2.8+3.8+2.0 +5.3%
2006 +1.3-0.2+1.3+0.7-0.9-2.9+0.6+2.1+2.4+3.5+1.9+2.0 +11.8%
2007 +0.5+1.4-2.6+4.0+3.2+0.2+0.4-4.3+2.9+2.8-5.0+1.1 +4.8%
2008 -6.8-1.7-2.8+4.1+2.4-4.4-6.3+1.9-5.0-20.4-8.9-0.6 -48.5%
2009 -1.4-7.0-6.0+12.0+6.4+2.6+1.0+7.9+3.4+2.2+1.9+2.1 +25.3%
2010QE & Recovery +1.2-3.1+5.8+3.9-6.0-3.7-0.3+0.7+3.2+4.4+2.3+3.6 +12.0%
2011 +3.3+3.0-1.3+2.1+0.5-3.8+2.9-10.6-1.0+2.8+1.6+1.4 +1.1%
2012 +4.6+4.0+2.7-0.2-3.3-1.3+2.7+3.2+2.8-0.4-3.0+2.0 +13.9%
2013 +4.1+2.2+2.5+1.3+4.4-1.3+3.1+0.1+1.0+1.9+3.7+1.4 +24.4%
2014 +0.8-0.3+2.6+0.0+1.4+3.0+1.3-0.6+1.6-2.8+5.5+0.5 +13.1%
2015 -1.3+2.7-0.1+0.7+0.8-0.6-0.2-2.6-4.7+4.1+2.8-1.3 +0.3%
2016Trump & COVID -6.6-0.7+6.2+2.7-0.5+0.9+3.1+1.0-0.6-0.7+1.0+3.8 +9.5%
2017 +1.3+2.4+1.6-0.3+1.5+1.6+0.8+0.1+1.5+2.6+1.4+2.7 +17.2%
2018 +4.7-3.0-0.1-1.8+1.8+2.0+1.4+2.3+1.5-4.0-2.2-5.7 -3.2%
2019 +1.6+5.7+1.8+3.6-1.7+1.2+3.7-3.3+2.9-0.2+4.3+2.3 +21.8%
2020 +3.2-0.0-19.1+4.1+5.7+6.3+3.3+5.7-0.8+1.6+3.8+4.1 +18.1%
2021AI & Inflation +2.7+2.4+0.7+5.9+0.6+1.7+3.0+2.1-0.2+0.3+4.6+0.2 +23.9%
2022 -2.2-3.0-1.0+0.0-8.0-3.5+0.3+6.3-7.4-3.2+5.1-0.1 -16.7%
2023 +1.2+3.0-2.7+3.9+0.6+4.8+3.7-1.8-0.4-3.4+4.7+5.0 +18.7%
2024 +2.5+4.3+3.2-1.5+2.7+3.4+2.4-0.7+2.3+3.0+2.4+1.4 +25.3%
2025 -0.5+1.0-5.9-5.5+8.2+3.8+4.4+1.8+2.7+2.3+0.1+1.7 +14.0%

Holding Period Probabilities · Chance of Positive Return

1 Month
57.4%
n = 1,859
3 Months
60.6%
n = 1,857
6 Months
63.7%
n = 1,854
1 Year
65.3%
n = 1,848
2 Years
70.6%
n = 1,836
5 Years
75.4%
n = 1,800
10 Years
88.2%
n = 1,740
20 Years
99.0%
n = 1,620
"Time in the market beats timing" — but 154 years shows it's not 100% until 20 years.
Even at 10 years, 11.8% of windows were negative (price-only, excluding dividends). For a 6-month trading window, the base rate is 63.7% positive — meaning alpha must overcome a ~36% probability of headwind.
APEX CAPITAL PARTNERS · Research Division · February 2026
Source: Robert Shiller, Yale University (Irrational Exuberance). Price returns only (excludes dividends). Not financial advice.